ASTANA, Kazakhstan (AP) — Defense experts and regional officials suspect Russian anti-aircraft fire caused an Azerbaijan Airlines passenger plane to crash in Kazakhstan on Christmas Day, contradicting Moscow’s claims that weather and birds were responsible.
The Embraer 190 aircraft crashed while attempting an emergency landing in Kazakhstan after diverting from its planned Baku-to-Grozny route, killing 38 of the 67 people aboard. Twenty-nine passengers survived the crash, which occurred amid reports of active Russian air defenses responding to a Ukrainian drone strike.
“Russia was supposed to close the airspace over Grozny, but did not do so,” said Ukrainian National Security and Defense Council official Andriy Kovalenko. “The plane was damaged by the Russians and sent to Kazakhstan, instead of making an emergency landing in Grozny and saving people’s lives.”
Aviation security agency Osprey cited wreckage footage showing possible anti-aircraft damage. A senior Caucasus official told the Financial Times that evidence indicated air defense systems damaged the aircraft over Grozny, calling Russia’s failure to close the airspace “incompetent” at best.
Russian authorities claim heavy fog forced the diversion and a bird strike caused the crash, a narrative initially supported by Azerbaijan’s president, who said he was informed the diversion was weather-related.
Senior Ukrainian officials confirmed to the Financial Times their belief that Russian air defense systems most likely hit the aircraft. Images of the wreckage show apparent shrapnel damage to the plane’s interior and tail section.
The flight carried predominantly Azerbaijani citizens, along with 16 Russians and several passengers from Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan. The crash has raised concerns about civilian aviation safety in regions where military air defense systems are active.
Multiple aviation experts questioned why Russian authorities failed to close the airspace over Grozny despite operating anti-aircraft systems in response to reported drone activity. The incident has prompted calls for an international investigation into the crash and Russian air defense protocols.
The tragedy marks one of the deadliest civilian aviation incidents in the region this year and has heightened tensions between Russia and neighboring states over airspace security measures.
